Thanks to CNBC’s Diana Olick for another great housing report (is there another housing reporter other than Diana?)
Housing is showing signs of having FINALLY bottomed!
Here are the facts:
Distressed sales are now 32% of the market.
ALL cash buyer are 31%.
Home sales INCREASED in December. I think this is not a small point. When was the last time that housing sales INCREASED in December? (never)
The overall supply of homes has dropped from 11 months to 6.2 months.
National Association of Realtors is calling this a substained recovery. Meaning, we have seen consistently positive housing reports over the last 90 days. Granted, these positive reports have been mere blips on the radar. We will take all the positive blips- positive momentum we can get!
Diana makes a point that does put some water on the optimistic fires of recovery: 6,000,000.
Thats the number of homes currently being held in the banks shadow inventory. One way or another those will become listings for REALTORS (YOU?) For the housing market to truly turn the corner we must clear that inventory. How long will that take…what do you think?
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If 5 million homes are sold annually on a nation wide basis and approximately 30% of those sales are distressed (11/2 million), and supply and demand remain even, it will take four to five years to absorb the shadow inventory.
I think that it’s doubtful that the supply of distressed properties will slow in the next four to five years without lender assistance. I think that the lenders will be able to keep borrowers in place if they write down or share in the negative equity of upside down borrowers. I believe that lenders should allow borrowers with slightly negative or marginal equity to refinance at today’s historically low rates.
I also think that lenders should allow borrowers who have lost their jobs to sell their homes as short sales to family members or close friends. Forget the arms length transaction. Who cares?
excellent points Sue
Tim
“National Association of Realtors is calling this a substained recovery. Meaning, we have seen consistently positive housing reports over the last 90 days”
This, from the same “experts” that OVERestimated sales figures by as much as 20% for YEARS?
I got a bridge I wanna sell. Give me a call.